What the Geary Subway depends on

SFMTA's structural operating deficit (in the $300M+ range for FY26-27 and FY27-28; Controller's Office put FY26-27 at ~$322M, more recent SFMTA Board updates may differ) feeds directly into FTA Local Financial Commitment scoring. The November 2026 ballot measures (regional sales tax + SFMTA parcel tax) are the resolution path.

The initial public-engagement cycle for the current study. Two virtual town halls plus 1-on-1 meetings with community groups, and 2,400+ survey responses. Findings: broad community understanding of need, concerns about cost and schedule, and questions about construction-phase impacts. Documented in the February 25, 2026 CAC deck (slides 6-7).

SFCTA's travel-demand engine ran the corridor against 2050 baseline scenarios for the current study. The modeling produced the project's headline ridership numbers: 160,000-180,000 daily trips as an SF-only project, up to 310,000 in a regionally connected scenario. Documented in the February 25, 2026 CAC deck (slides 5, 16).

The 38 Geary is the highest-ridership SF bus route. SF voters approved transportation sales tax measures that funded Geary rail in 1989 (Prop B) and 2003 (Prop K). An earlier 1937 measure that would have funded Geary rail was defeated.

SFCTA staff presented the study findings to SFCTA's standing Community Advisory Committee on February 25, 2026 (the deck attached). This was the informational delivery: ridership scenarios, modeling assumptions, corridor alignment options.

The CAC's formal discussion of the study, with public comment on the record, is expected at the May 27, 2026 meeting before the Board vote in June. The CAC's recommendation is one of the formal inputs the Board considers. The Geary subway is anticipated on the agenda but the agenda is not yet posted; public comment is taken on whatever items appear.

Direct alignment with corridor neighborhood associations will likely be required during environmental review, Section 106 historic review, and any campaign tied to a future ballot measure. The CAC (appointee-based) does not substitute for it. Most corridor associations have not yet taken public positions on the subway specifically; the 2017 BRT lawsuit is the precedent for how some have engaged when they object, though the subway's surface impacts differ substantially from BRT and prior posture should not be assumed to predict subway posture.

OEWD's Construction Mitigation Pilot Program exists but is not adequately funded. A standing Corridor Business Stabilization Policy attached to the project budget would resolve this.

SFCTA is a state-chartered agency established under California Public Utilities Code §131000 et seq. (the Bay Area County Traffic and Transportation Funding Act, Division 12.5). SFMTA's authority sits in SF Charter Article VIIIA. Prop L (2022) provides the half-cent transportation sales tax. All in place.

SF voters renewed the half-cent transportation sales tax for 30 years in November 2022. The Expenditure Plan includes the "Next Generation Transit Investments" program: $87M total, of which $27M is Prop L sales tax and $22M is Priority 1. Geary is one of four projects eligible to share that allocation. This is the standing local funding mechanism the project sits on.

The Geary corridor was upzoned in the FZP, providing the density necessary for value capture math and for SB 79 implementation. The corridor is now SF's primary new-housing growth zone.

The multi-agency citywide Transit Strategy that first elevated a Geary/19th Avenue subway as a long-range vision rather than another BRT iteration. Published December 2021 by SFCTA, SFMTA, and SF Planning. The Strategy is what subsequent SFCTA work cites as the framing for treating the corridor as a subway candidate.

The originating SFCTA Board action for the current study. On April 12, 2022, the SFCTA Board (Item 9) allocated $557,156 (SFCTA) plus $170,367 (SFMTA) and $74,741 (SF Planning) in Prop K funds for the Geary/19th Avenue Subway Strategic Case scoping work. The request came from Supervisor Myrna Melgar (D7), framed around west-side growth (Stonestown, SF State) and regional connectivity. This is the Board action that produced the February 25, 2026 CAC presentation.

SFPUC Phase 2 water and sewer replacement is underway on Geary (32nd Avenue to Stanyan Street, January 2025 through 2027). Coordination with future SFMTA tunneling is a known operational challenge.

Eleven Supervisors sitting as the SFCTA Board vote in June 2026 on whether to authorize Project Development. Public comment is taken before the vote. This is the single most consequential SF-level decision.

SFCTA's February 2026 study presents Salesforce Transit Center as the eastern terminus but does not commit to a specific path from the Tenderloin into it. The technology choice (heavy rail, light rail, or automated metro) constrains the alignment. The existing Market Street BART/Muni tunnel is fully occupied; a separate downtown tunnel is required regardless. This gets resolved during the Project Development phase that the June 2026 Board vote authorizes. See about the map for the open questions in detail.

SFMTA's structural operating deficit (in the $300M+ range for FY26-27 and FY27-28; Controller's Office put FY26-27 at ~$322M, more recent SFMTA Board updates may differ) feeds directly into FTA Local Financial Commitment scoring. The November 2026 ballot measures (regional sales tax + SFMTA parcel tax) are the resolution path.

Voters required project-delivery oversight guidelines in Prop L. SFCTA listed adoption as a 2025 goal; as of May 2026 it has not happened. Adoption requires a Board vote.

Mayor Lurie has supported ballot measures funding transit, but has not publicly taken a strong position on the Geary subway specifically. Direct outreach to the Mayor's office (Room 200, City Hall) is the leverage point.

Beyond Prop L sales tax, SF would need to identify additional local matching funds. No current commitment.

Link21 spent years studying whether a new transbay tube should be BART-gauge (broad gauge) or standard gauge. Standard gauge was selected by the BART Board on June 13, 2025 and the CCJPA Board on June 18, 2025. The choice is consequential for Geary: a standard-gauge transbay link is what allows Caltrain, future high-speed rail, and a possible Geary heavy-rail line to share infrastructure. The decision unblocks subsequent design work.

The successor governance agreement to the 2020 SF Peninsula Rail Program MOU (which sunset May 2024). SFCTA approved December 10, 2024 (Resolution 25-26); TJPA Board approved January 30, 2025. Six signatories: TJPA, MTC, SFCTA, Caltrain (PCJPB), CHSRA, and the City and County of San Francisco. Establishes the Executive Steering Committee and Integrated Program Management Team that will manage The Portal through construction. Relevant to Geary because The Portal is the eastern-terminus regional-rail connector.

The Regional Housing Needs Allocation process aligns regional housing growth with transit corridors. SF's allocation drives FZP corridor density which feeds Geary subway ridership.

Five-county half-cent sales tax for transit operating support. Approximately $1B/year regionally. Vote in November 2026.

Phase 1 (Project Identification). About $200M committed against an $18-30B program cost. Standard-gauge decision finalized June 2025.

BART has its own structural operating deficit. Same November 2026 regional sales tax measure addresses both BART and SFMTA.

Plan Bay Area 2050+ was adopted March 25, 2026 without promoting Link21. The next regular update is approximately 2030. Mid-cycle amendment is procedurally possible but has not been initiated.

Caltrain currently terminates at 4th & King. The Downtown Extension (DTX / The Portal), a 1.3-mile tunnel that would take Caltrain from there to Salesforce Transit Center, is funded for design but not construction. Without DTX, Caltrain cannot reach Salesforce TC, which weakens the Geary subway's regional through-running case at its eastern terminus.

The 2024 California State Rail Plan, published by Caltrans, identifies a new Western San Francisco rail link as a key regional and statewide connection. State Rail Plan inclusion is the upstream condition for later TIRCP and CTC funding eligibility, and it positions the Geary corridor as part of California's published intercity-rail vision rather than a standalone SF project. Per the Feb 25, 2026 CAC deck (slide 2).

Signed October 10, 2025, effective July 1, 2026 in incorporated cities. Tiered upzoning around qualifying transit stops based on stop tier and proximity: heights from 55 to 95 feet, density from at least 30 dwelling units per acre up to a maximum of 160 du/acre for projects adjacent to a Tier 1 stop.

Caltrans owns 19th Avenue (it is California State Route 1). Coordination on the corridor is ongoing through Caltrans District 4.

The state's annual transportation budget cycle determines TIRCP, STIP, and HSR Authority funding. Senator Wiener and the SF Assembly delegation are the leverage points.

Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program funds (cap-and-trade revenue) and STIP funds are competitively allocated. SFCTA has not yet submitted Geary subway requests.

In May 2024, FTA advanced The Portal into the Engineering phase of the Capital Investment Grants pipeline (second of three CIG stages) and set its maximum federal share at $3,384,462,235 (~41% of the ~$8.25B project cost). A Full Funding Grant Agreement has not been signed; no federal money is obligated until it is. Relevant to Geary as the most recent precedent for a SF-region project successfully advancing through CIG, and as the eastern-terminus regional-rail connector.

National Environmental Policy Act review is required for federal funding. Begins formally in the Project Development phase, which the SFCTA Board has not yet authorized.

FTA is the largest single funding source for transit megaprojects in the US. Estimated $7-15B for Geary. As of early 2026, FTA has processed zero new CIG awards in approximately 300 days of the second Trump administration.

USDOT cancelled $4.2B in CHSRA funding in July 2025 via a 300-page Compliance Review citing schedule slippage. The same mechanism could be applied to FTA grants in any phase.

The Geary subway's CIG application would land in 2027-2029, squarely in the current administration's term. A second four-year window of similar federal posture would push the application timeline into the 2030s.

The 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law expanded transit funding. Reauthorization cycles in 2026-2030 will determine whether expanded levels continue.